Millennial-scale climate events—changes that unfold over 1,000 to 10,000 years—can drive surprisingly abrupt shifts in global climate within just decades. In the past, collapses of large Northern Hemisphere ice sheets played a major role in triggering these events, but those ice sheets no longer exist. This means that in the future, Antarctica’s marine-based ice sheets may become the key players in driving similar instabilities, with far-reaching effects on global sea level, rainfall, and wind patterns. In collaboration with marine sedimentologists from Victoria University of Wellington’s Antarctic Research Centre, our research team plans to use ice sheet and Earth System Models to understand how the global consequences of Antarctic Ice Sheet rapid melt events during past warm periods of the Miocene and Pliocene, when atmospheric CO₂ levels (350–800 ppm) were similar to those expected in coming centuries. By comparing these models with high-resolution marine sediments and sea level reconstructions, we aim to uncover the drivers of past variability and improve predictions of how the Antarctic Ice Sheet will respond to ongoing climate change.
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